Ways To Save Earth From Global Warming – More than a fifth of the world’s population could face the specter of a dangerously hot future by 2100, according to exciting new research. The warning comes despite the Paris Agreement pledging to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Researchers fear that current climate policies will not be able to limit the rise in mercury and that the average global temperature could increase by 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
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A joint effort between the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute (MISSION) and Nanjing University provides a worrying picture of what this kind of warming means for humanity.
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Basically, the researchers looked at how this warming would affect people living outside the “climate gap,” a term used to describe the conditions under which our species evolved.
The study found that about 60 million people are currently experiencing dangerously high temperatures, defined as an average temperature of 29 degrees Celsius or higher. Worryingly, if global warming reaches 2.7 degrees Celsius, this number is projected to rise to two billion. That’s 22% of the population projected for 2100.
However, amid grim statistics, the paper highlights the significant potential for some climate policies to reduce the human costs and inequalities of climate change.
By implementing strong policies to limit global warming to 1.5°C, we can significantly reduce the number of people exposed to dangerous heat, saving one-sixth of humanity from this fate compared to a 2.7°C warming scenario.
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The team went on to highlight the underlying injustice of the climate crisis. They found that lifetime emissions of just 3.5 of the average global population today, or just 1.2 of US citizens, could expose future humans to dangerous heat.
This stark reality takes on an added dimension when we consider that the regions where these future heat-affected people will live typically emit half of today’s global average.
Worst-case global warming of 3.6°C or 4.4°C could push half the world’s population out of the climate gap, an existential risk that researchers are urging to avoid.
“The costs of global warming are often expressed in financial terms, but our study highlights the unprecedented human cost of failing to address the climate emergency,” said Professor Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute.
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“For every 0.1°C increase in temperature above current levels, around 140 million more people will be exposed to dangerous heat. This shows both the scale of the problem and the importance of decisive action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Not 2.7°C, This means five times fewer people will experience dangerous heat in 2100.”
To better understand the crisis, researchers defined a person’s “niche.” Historically, human density has peaked in areas with an average temperature of about 13°C and to a lesser extent 27°C – typically in monsoon seasons such as South Asia. Accordingly, prosperity (measured by GDP) and crop and livestock density follow similar patterns.
However, with less than 1% of humanity currently living in areas exposed to dangerous heat, the study surprisingly shows that climate change has already pushed 9% of the world’s population (over 600 million people) out of the loop.
“Most of these people lived near the cold peak of the niche at 13 degrees Celsius and are now in the ‘middle ground’ between the two peaks.” Although not too hot, these conditions are very dry and historically did not support dense human populations,” explained Chi Su, a professor at Nanjing University.
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“Meanwhile, most people outside the gaps are projected to experience dangerous heat from persistent temperatures. Such high temperatures are associated with a host of problems, including increased mortality, reduced work productivity, learning disabilities, adverse pregnancy outcomes, reduced productivity, increased numbers of conflicts and the spread of infectious diseases. increase
The study also suggests that climate change may make some colder places uninhabitable, but population growth is expected in areas prone to dangerous heat, particularly in India and Nigeria.
Drilling down into the details, the study found that under current global warming, exposure to dangerous heat would increase dramatically by 1.2°C, an increase of about 140 million people for every additional 0.1°C of warming.
With the world’s population estimated at 9.5 billion, this number is even more alarming. India will suffer from global warming of 2.7 degrees Celsius and more than 600 million people will face dangerous heat. If this warming could be limited to 1.5°C, this number could drop dramatically to around 90 million.
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Similarly, Nigeria would have the second highest population in the event of a warming event below 2.7 degrees Celsius of global warming, putting more than 300 million people at risk. If the temperature is reduced to 1.5 degrees Celsius, this number will be less than 40 million.
India and Nigeria have become “hotspots” of dangerous temperatures at this stage. If the world warms by 2.7 degrees Celsius, almost 100% of countries, including Burkina Faso and Mali, will be dangerously hot. Although Brazil has almost no areas at 1.5°C, the largest land area will be dangerously hot at 2.7°C. In both Australia and India, areas under such conditions are expected to grow significantly.
Collaborating researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the University of Washington, North Carolina, Aarhus and Wageningen emphasize that these dire consequences can be avoided by taking swift action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. .
Reflecting on the motivation behind his research, Professor Martens Schaefer from Wageningen University said: “We were motivated by the fact that the economic costs of carbon dioxide emissions have an impact on human well-being. Our calculations now help bridge this gap and raise new, unusual questions about justice.
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The results of this study provide valuable insight into the ethnic nature of expected climate impacts. Ashish Ghadiyali of the Exeter Institute for Global Systems Science said: “Given the urgency of decarbonisation efforts and the value of global investment on the climate risk front, the latest results should prompt policy change.
Funded by the Open Society Foundations, the mission also serves as a cornerstone of the Global Alliance for Community.
Wendy Broadgate, CEO of Future Mission, commented: “We are seeing the effects of dangerous warming on people around the world. It will only accelerate if we do not take immediate and decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute wants to identify “positive milestones” to accelerate action on climate change. The institute’s latest report highlights three “points of supercapitalization” that could trigger the decarbonization cascade.
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The researchers provided their results in a study titled “Quantifying the Human Cost of Global Warming” published in the journal Nature Sustainability. This comprehensive study not only highlights the human costs of global warming, but also underscores the urgent need for decisive climate policy to avoid a bleak future.
Climate change refers to long-term changes in temperature and specific weather patterns around the world. It is primarily due to human activities that greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere, causing a warming effect known as global warming. These activities include the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, deforestation and industrial processes.
This global warming has far-reaching effects on climate systems, leading to more intense and frequent heat waves, sea level rise due to melting ice, more frequent and severe natural disasters such as hurricanes and wildfires, and significant ecosystem disturbances and wildfires. agriculture
The Paris Agreement is an international agreement designed to address these issues. It was adopted by 196 parties at COP 21 in Paris on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016. Its goal is to limit global warming to less than 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels.
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The target was set in response to the scientific consensus that global warming of 2°C would have catastrophic consequences for the planet, including severe and potentially irreversible changes to climate, ecosystems and biodiversity.
The lower target of 1.5 degrees was introduced in recognition that even 2 degrees of warming could have serious consequences, particularly for vulnerable populations such as small island nations.
To achieve this goal, the countries of the Paris Agreement have made National Contributions (NDCs), which are their individual commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The agreement also includes provisions for monitoring, reporting and accelerating these commitments over time to ensure that the global response to climate change continues to strengthen over the coming decades.
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In addition, the Paris Agreement recognizes the need for global cooperation in other areas such as climate change adaptation, financial flows, technology transfer and capacity building. It recognizes that some countries, especially developing countries, need help to reduce emissions and cope with the effects of climate change.
However, despite the ambitions of the Paris Agreement, the current commitments contained in the agreement are not
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